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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Game 51: Blanton allows 6 runs, Phils lose but remain 4 back (26-25)

The Phils were unable to defeat rookie pitcher Jeremy Hefner last night, scoring only 3 runs (one thanks to an error) against the Mets' pitching staff. Joe Blanton struggled again, surrendering 2 home runs en route to a 5-inning, 6-run outing.

I don't have any complaints for Manuel last night; Blanton's final batter faced was Scott Hairston, who launched a 2-run homer to triple the Mets' lead to 6-3 (the final score). Blanton's ERA is now over 5.00, but he's actually posting the best SO/BB ratio of his career this season. He should return to normal, due not only to his SO/BB, but also since his HR/FB ratio (which varies widely in small samples) is significantly higher than his career rate. Emphasis, however, on the word "should".

Tonight the Phils look to take 2 of 3 from the Mets before tomorrow's off day. Cliff Lee faces RHP Dillon Gee at 7:10 pm.





4 comments:

Robby Bonfire said...

The K/W ratio is one of the most over-rated barometers of a pitcher's ability, around. About as useful as a hitter's BA, a number we used to genuflect to, but now regard as essentially hollow, given that it bypasses OBA and power output.

Years ago I ran a regression study on various in-game components. The results put a walk at -.50/run damage to a pitcher; while the vaunted "K" stat checked in as having a value of +.10 runs to a pitcher.

So that a walk is approximately five times more damaging to a pitcher than a K is helpful. Best way to compensate for this is to multiply a pitcher's walk ratio by five and then factor the actual K ratio into the mix. However one does it, to put a K on a par with a W is an exercise in self-delusion and pre-sabermetrics myopia.

Andy Musser said...

I never put SO on par with BB; i simply stated that Blanton was walking the fewest people per strikeout earned in his career. His walk rate right now is the lowest of his career, and he's doing so without sacrificing strikeouts.

Once a ball is put in play, the pitcher has no influence on the result. Limiting walks while simultaneously limiting contact is pretty much every pitcher's goal.

Scott Graham said...

Robbie,

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but you're suggesting multiplying a stat by a constant to alter the appearance of it? While the ratio might look different, won't it still tell the same story?

Robby Bonfire said...

Actually, I'm not suggesting any methodology of mine or anyone else's be adopted. Just saying that when there is such an imbalance in value between two components being combined, or compared, I, for one, would never put them on a par, as a case could be made that K/W ratio does.

But then I was never giddy over BABIP, the new "God" of Sabermetrics stats, either, so we each choose our own road as to which barometers we mostly subscribe to.