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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Tim Tebow

Anyone else sick of hearing how much of a "Winner" Tebow is? It makes me sick. He's not a good NFL quarterback.

In 6 games since becoming the Broncos starter, Tebow has thrown 133 passes, completing only 61 of them. That's good for a 45.9 completion percentage. 773 yards in 6 games. Thats about 130 yds/gm. That's not good for a quarterback, and I don't care if you run - which he does. Since becoming a starter, Tebow has added 418 yards with his legs. Combine passing and rushing, and you get an average of 198.5 yds/gm. Taking a look around the rest of the league, here are QBs who have averaged more in passing yards alone than Tebow's total yardage:

Brees
Brady
Rodgers
E. Manning (really?)
Rivers
Stafford
Newton
Big Ben
Romo
Ryan
Flacco
Schaub
Freeman
Grossman
Kolb (haha)
Vick (damn)
Cutler
Fitzpatrick
Hasselbeck
Sanchez
Dalton
Bradford
McCoy
TAVARIS JACKSON
MATT MOORE

That's 25 QBs who average more yds/game passing than Tim Tebow can account for through the run and the pass.

But he wins?!!?!?! Well, maybe he wins because in 5 of the 6 games he's started (the 5 wins), his defense has allowed an average of 15 pts. In the game where his defense allowed 45 points, the Broncos lost (shocker).

15 pts/game. The 49ers are the only defense to average fewer than 15 pts allowed/game.

Maybe, just maybe, that's why the Broncos have won.


20 comments:

hk said...

Yes, but how do we know that Tebow hasn't inspired the defense to play better?

Scott Graham said...

I'm more willing to bet that his teammates can't relate to him, and don't take too kindly to the media giving him the credit for every win

hk said...

Of course I was being facetious. At least (if you are a Broncos fan), Elway doesn't seem to be buying into the small sample size or the media hype.

Scott Graham said...

I was pretty sure, and seriously hoping you were kidding. Our lone commentor cannot be a Tebow believer.

hk said...

Can you really defend overpaying Papelbon when it was done before they filled the SS position and when it was followed by moves to fill the bench on the cheap (i.e. trading for Ty Wigginton and giving two years to Laynce Nix)?

Scott Graham said...

I don't think they should have waited for the SS deals to be finished before addressing other needs. There's a good chance that if they waited for Reyes to sign before they talked to Rollins or whomever, that another team would have signed Papelbon. I don't see how the bench moves are part of this discussion. Why do we want to spend more than "on the cheap" money on bench players?

If the Phillies don't re-sign Rollins or an adequate SS for any reason other than they don't want to overpay (years or money), then signing Papelbon becomes a problem. If they thought: "we're prepared to sign any SS other than Reyes when the time comes, let's sign Papelbon now", and they do sign one, who am I do fault them?

hk said...

The bench moves are relevant because bench players like Wigginton and Nix will probably get 600 or more plate appearances between them. Personally, I would prefer to give those 600 PA's and the innings in the field to better, more costly, players.

Scott Graham said...

Only one Phillies bench player had 300 PAs last year which is pretty amazing considering Utley, Polanco, and Victorino were all hurt for decent periods of time. Yes, Howard will be hurt for some time, but I'm okay with having Mayberry at 1st and platooning Brown and Francisco in the OF, or anything like that.

hk said...

I, too, would have been fine with Mayberry at 1st while Howard is out and a LF split between Brown, Mayberry and Francisco (while Mayberry is covering 1B). However, by signing Nix and giving him a 2-year deal, I think Ben will be non-tendered and I think it is a sign that Dom's chances of getting MLB PA's are very slim.

As far as only one bench player getting 300 PA's last year, that was because the Phils split the 634 PA's among 3 players (Valdez, Martinez and Orr). I think it's a pretty safe bet that, barring injuries to Nix and Wigginton, they will combine for more than 600 PA's. Do you disagree?

Scott Graham said...

I really don't know. You're probably right, but I would blame that more on misuse of personnel (brown, Mayberry, and Francisco). If Nix is simply a bench bat, I don't see the problem. You're probably right that he will be used more (worse).

Scott Graham said...

hk,

I didn't read much from the Laynce Nix post on crashburn, but I noticed some of your early comments about opportunity cost of only being able to afford Nix and Wigginton because of Howard and Papelbon.

When was the last time the Phillies signed an everyday capable player to fill a bench role? I just don't see a lack of cap space as the reason for these two acquisitions. If I am wrong, I will completely agree with you (I already agree about Howard). However, I fully believe that if the PHillies were paying Howard ~ 18 mil and hadn't signed Papelbon that they would still be signing lesser players to fill up the roster rather than bringing in bigger names.

Scott Graham said...

Don't confuse that comment with me saying that's how the Phillies SHOULD approach the problem. I would like them to sign Kubel or Damon regardless of who else is on the roster.

hk said...

You may be right about that. It is quite possible that they targeted Wigginton and Nix and got their men and the problem is more one of talent evaluation than it is one of payroll allocation. However, if they were paying Howard $18M and paying Madson $9.5M instead of paying Papelbon $12.5M, I think they would have given Cuddyer $27M for 3 years. Cuddyer > Wigginton + Nix, but I would have hated that deal, too.

I am still waiting to see what kind of deal Wilson Betemit eventually gets because Betemit > Wigginton or Nix and might cost nearly as much (or as little). If it was up to me, I would have signed Madson, Betemit and Kubel for approximately the same AAV as Papelbon, Wigginton and Nix.

hk said...

Two more things. One, which may be lost in all of my comments, is that I prefer Papelbon to Madson, but I prefer $9.5M Madson to $12.5M Papelbon. The other is that I miss Robby Bonfire's comments.

Scott Graham said...

I really like Madson. I don't think I'm going to enjoy Papelbon's antics too much, but if he's as good as in previous years, I'll take it. I agree that if those were the prices, I'd take Madson.

Re: Bonfire comments - Don't we all?

hk said...

You're really going to defend the Papelbon signing to the death (or at least to the pain), aren't you?

Scott Graham said...

It was just that LTG brought up that topic about judging decisions based on outcomes. I'd rather have Madson. I don't even really like Papelbon. I just don't get the criticism for "overpaying". Again, if it doesn't handcuff them at any point, then who cares?

hk said...

I know. I was pretty much just pulling your chain and had a chance to use a "Princess Bride" reference while doing so. However, I still submit that the extra money allocated to Papelbon is the difference between Laynce Nix, who has the same lifetime BA and OBP as Dontrelle Willis, and a better LH bat (i.e. Jason Kubel). Put another way, I can't believe that a GM of a team that fancies itself a title contender would intentionally go out and sign Laynce Nix for a role that seems likely to equal 250 to 300 PA's.

Ray said...

in princess bride, it is to "the pay."
"THAT is what the pay means, it means i leave you wallowing in freakish misery forever"

Ray said...

egg on my face!
and all this time i thought it was the pay