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95% Phillies, 4% Eagles/Flyers/Sixers/Big Five, 1% Nonsense .... Contact us: Scott Graham ~ Andy Musser

Friday, July 23, 2010

Do not trade Werth

Jayson Werth is in a notable slump, having only one hit with runners in scoring position since June 24. This slump has demolished the legion of Phillies fans who were clamoring for the team to re-sign the rightfielder since his contract is up after this year. Given the Phils' shortage in starting pitching (thanks Amaro), many Phils fans want Werth to be traded before the trade deadline. If that happens, the starting outfield next year will be Domonic Brown (a rookie), Shane Victorino (.313 OBP this year), and Raul Ibanez (awful this year; 39 years old next year).

Werth had a career year last year, which was his first full season as a starter. That was not a coincidence. Mr. Graham virtually guaranteed last year's season on this site (I'd link to it, but that would take some effort). What were his numbers? 36 homers, 26 doubles, .373 OBP/.506 SLG. His numbers this year (extrapolated to a full season)? 22 homers, 51 doubles (!), .369 OBP/.498 SLG.

If you put a gun to my head now, I would bet that his OBP and SLG surpass last year's marks. He has been in a long slump, yet, his numbers are almost identical to last year. He should surpass them when he turns the slump around.

The idea of trading Werth now, in the middle of a slump when his trade value is diminished, just reeks of a move where Ruben Amaro Jr. would come out on the short end of the deal. It's not like that's ever happened before with Amaro, and I hope he doesn't have a knee-jerk reaction to Werth's numbers with RISP.

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