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Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Done deal?

610 WIP just announced the deal as final although no other sources that I have seen have officially announced that Halladay will in fact, be on his way to Philly. Many people have voiced their displeasure about giving up Lee. This is what you can tell them.

1) Halladay is a better pitcher. It is close in a sense, but he is significantly better. Use almost any stat you want to prove this

2) The deal proposed mid-season went like this:

Phillies give: J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor
Phillies get: Roy Halladay

End result: Cliff Lee does not pitch for the Phillies. Phils get Halladay and give up 2 "maybe" and one "1/2-maybe". They get no "maybes" in return.

Current deal proposed:

Phillies give: Cliff Lee, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, and Travis D'Arnaud
Phillies get: Roy Halladay, Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies

End result: Cliff Lee does not pitch for the Phillies. They get Roy Halladay and give up 3 "maybes" and get 2 "maybes" in return. A net result of -1 "maybe". J.A. Happ remains a Phillie

3) No matter how good the minor leaguers perform in the Busch league, there is no telling how it will unfold if/when they make it to the big leagues.

This is how I see the deal working out regardless of the Mariners: The Phillies get more than they would have had they done the deal mid-season, and the Blue Jays get less.

All signs point to yes.


Henry Rowengartner said...

The Halladay part of the deal is fine. The real problem is the Lee to Mariners side of it. Having already obtained Halliday, the Lee portion of the deal is nothing more than a salary bump. This is the kind of deal teams make in July when they have been eliminated and want to get some prospects for the guy who is going to walk at the end of the year.

In effect the Phillies are saying that saving $9 million dollars and the three prospects they got back from the Mariners (one of whom's hip is literally falling apart and got moved to a reliever at SINGLE A) is worth more than having an entire season + playoffs of two aces.

We just tendered Blanton on Saturday, who is set to make $7 million in arbitration. If money was such a concern I'd much rather have non-tendered Blanton and kept Lee. Or, I don't know, not have made the dumbest decision in the history of baseball by signing Moyer to a two year deal last year and forcing us to pay him $8 million this year.

The Phillies lost the World Series for two reasons. Their #2 starter and their closer. This trade addresses neither of those problems and completely depletes our farm system.

Anonymous said...

No. The phillies traded lee to the mariners to recover some of the prospect potential we lost to toronto, which protects our future. we swapped halladay for lee because he is more talented and is a long term option. amaro is trying to establish long term dominance, how does no one understand this?

Henry Rowengartner said...

Seattle is overjoyed about this trade for a reason. The prospects they had to give up are nothing special. If the purpose of the Lee trade is truly prospect recovery and not a salary dump (which I'm skeptical of) then what is the rush? The only reason Seattle was in the picture in the first place was because they were needed for the three-way trade. Now that it's not a three-way trade, shop Lee around and see what can be had... The Angels are in desperate need of an ace. If a damaged goods starter-already-turned-reliever, a guy who has only managed to pull off a Juan Pierre impression in Single A, and a Carlos Carrasco type pitcher are the best you can do then fine.

Scott Graham said...

Maybe I'm confused, but the Mariners like it because they're receiving a huge ace. The Mariners are supposedly sending prospects to the Jays as well.

I don't think it was purely a salary dump. I'm pretty sure the Lee move was crucial in getting this done. That way the Jays get a ton of prospects (Phils and Ms) the Phillies get Halladay and some prospects (Ms) and the Ms get another Ace to accompany King Felix, instantly making them better.

Maybe I'm giving the Phillies brass too much credit, but I don't see it as a salary dump. If they were worried about salary they wouldn't have re-signed a guy who makes a ton more than Lee.

I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to the money side of it (your argument) so if you want to break it down, I'm more than happy to listen

Mike said...

I also do not see this as a salary dump.

Henry Rowengartner said...

As it stands right now, although there have been about 500 incarnations of the trade, is that it is two separate deals. The Mariners are not sending anything to the Blue Jays and the Blue Jays are not sending anything to the Mariners.

The Phils get Halladay and 6M in cash for Drabek, D'Arnaud, and Taylor.

The Phils then do a separate trade with the Mariners, sending Lee for Armound, Gilles, and Ramirez.

I believe the Halladay deal has been finalized. I have not yet read a report saying the Lee deal has gone through. Hopefully Amaro is holding out for more (a bullpen arm like Morrow would be nice) or rethinking the Lee side altogether.

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Bill said...

...looks like ichiro is happy with the lee signing.

Andy Musser said...

Don't forget about Ben Francisco, also acquired with Lee. He was an everyday player for Chief Wahoo and he's their best bench player by far.