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Friday, May 1, 2009

Dobbs and Stairs should start tonight, which means you'll probably see Feliz and Werth

The hated Mets come into town for a 3-game weekend series, and tonight's pitching matchup is RHP Chan Ho Park vs. RHP Mike Pelfrey. I wish it were J.A. Happ instead of Park, but that's something out of our control.*

Mike Pelfrey has pretty awful numbers vs. LHB. He's actually in Kyle Kendrick-territory for his career:

RHB OBP/SLG: .332/.368
LHB OBP/SLG: .393/.455

The Phillies are trotting out their 5th starter tonight, and with Pelfrey's numbers vs. lefties, I think it should be a no-brainer to give Greg Dobbs the start at third base. Pedro Feliz' OBP vs. righties is .284, and Dobbs' is an above-average .340. When the starting pitcher has numbers like Pelfrey, allowing Feliz to start at third-base reduces your chances at a victory every single time.

I'd also like to see Matt Stairs start in right field for Jayson Werth, for the same reasons as Dobbs over Feliz. Werth and Stairs have similar OBP numbers vs. RHP, but Stairs has a much higher SLG. Pelfrey's chances of struggling only increase with each additional lefty placed into the lineup. In addition, Jayson Werth would be a nice RHB off the bench when Jerry Manuel inevitably brings his lefty relievers into a late-game situation.

That said, I would be surprised to see Charlie Manuel bench Feliz, and I would be shocked to see him bench Werth.

*As opposed to all other Phillies decisions, which we control completely

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

its almost as if you guys have a time machine, travel ahead, watch the next game, travel back in time, and then write exactly what the phillies could have done to win the game.

chan ho park is shaping up to be this years adam eaton, mr mix and i are going to start mailing him dvds