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Saturday, January 24, 2009

Why Rod Barajas explains the Eagles

It is a statistical anomaly that the Eagles have not won a Super Bowl under Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb. Judging a coach based on six games (1-5 in the 'final-four') is absurd.

Let's say the Eagles have had a 50 percent chance of winning each final-four game (NFC Championship Game + Super Bowl). Yes, it's more than 50 percent in Tampa and Carolina's cases, but certainly less than 50 percent in New England's and St. Louis' cases. So let's just use 50 percent across the board. If you get to the final four, and each game is 50 percent, you have a 25 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl (75 percent chance you fail). Thus, the chances of reaching the final-four five times and never winning the Super Bowl is 0.75*0.75*0.75*0.75*0.75 which equals 0.237.

Therefore, if you reach the NFC Championship Game five times, there is a 24 percent chance you will fail to win one Super Bowl. Sh** (i.e., terrible, spineless officiating) happens. This is roughly the same percentage of Rod Barajas getting a hit in a given at bat. If Rod Barajas gets a hit, it does not mean he is a good hitter. If Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb do not win the Super Bowl after five final-four trips, it does not mean they 'can't win the big one.'

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