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Monday, January 12, 2009

Player Analysis: #19 Greg Dobbs 3B/PH

Overall Season Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) & wOBA- .301/.333/.491 & .358
Overall Career Numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) & wOBA- .276/.320/.434 & .327

Dobbs was frequently hailed as Major League Baseball's best pinch hitter in 2008, which may have been true. However, being the best pinch hitter (by measurement of total pinch hits) is just qualifying not being a starter. Often times when people look at sports statistics, context is left behind. I am not crunching the numbers on this because pinch hitting it kind of random, and it has been found that pinch hitters over time perform much worse on average than would the player that was subbed for (besides pitchers). The correct context for measuring a pinch hitter would not be the total amound of hits accumulated, but rather the percentage of times the player reached base (optimally) or the percentage of PAs where the PH got a hit (most likely). I think we would all agree that a pinch hitter who gets 22 hits in 44 opportunities is better than the pinch hitter who gets 22 hits in 78 opportunities. Nonetheless, I recall specific at-bats that Greg Dobbs completed successfully in huge spots for the Phillies this year.

While pinch hitters are most of the time the best player who isn't good enough to play everyday, Greg Dobbs filled the role well this year. Dobbs is a pretty good hitter who needs to gain some plate discipline. While Pedro Feliz doesn't have much plate discipline which is also accompanied by a worse OBP than Dobbs, Dobbs' defense, while improving over time, is still nowhere near as good as Feliz's extreme defensive prowess. While I think Dobbs is extremely overrated, I think as long as Feliz is the everyday option at third base that Dobbs should see a lot more time at third base against right handed pitchers. The two can be effectively balanced if playing Dobbs when pitchers such as Hamels and Myers (high K pitchers, don't depend on alot of defense like Moyer and Blanton) pitch. Dobbs is pitiful against lefties, and Feliz is pitiful against righties. Both are somewhat average against their favorable pitching matchups.

If the Phillies sign Nomar, he could be a pleasant option for 3B.

Next up: #99 So Taguchi OF

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