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Saturday, December 20, 2008

A basketball post?

Is this our first basketball post? I believe so.

Lakers-Heat, about 5 seconds left, Lakers have the ball down by 2. Kobe got the ball, naturally, and took a fadeaway, 14-foot jumpshot that rimmed out. Lakers lose by 2.

The NBA league-average for 3-point shots is about 35%. Let's give Kobe a very generous 45% chance of making that fadeaway deuce. Therefore, if the Lakers attempt a three-pointer, they have a roughly 30-35% chance at a victory. The two-pointer gives you a 45% chance at tying the game, which is then naturally split in half to account for the fact that the Lakers would still have to win in OT, 22.5%.

Simply by choosing to shoot the deuce decreases the Lakers chances of winning by almost a third. I'm not saying to give up an open jam for a contested 3 in that situation, but over the long-run, it seems that going for the throat is better than going for the tie.

3 comments:

dr Nik said...

why isn't the likely hood of making the three also slashed as a result of the pressure of overtime?

Andy Musser said...

kobe has a 45 percent chance of making the 2 pointer. if he makes it at the buzzer, the game is tied and it goes to OT. the lakers then have a 50% chance of winning in OT.

.45*.50 = .225

The three-ball is a 35 percent chance at going in. If he makes it at the buzzer, Lakers win. 35%.

Anonymous said...

You know what THE MAYOR would say down 2 at the end of regulation