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Sunday, November 9, 2008

Player Analysis: #6 Ryan Howard 1B


Okay, so I've decided I'm going to go in ascending order of starting fielders by jersey number. After that, I think I'll go through the starting rotation, then bullpen, then bench players.

Overall season numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) & wOBA- .251/.339/.543 & .357
Overall career numbers (AVG/OBP/SLG) & wOBA- .279/.380/.590 & .385

2008 Month by Month-
March/April: .172/.297/.343 5 HRs 18 BBs
May: .238/.344/.590 10 HRs 18 BBs
June: .234/.287/.439 5 HRs 6 BBs
July: .311/.366/.612 10 HRs 8 BBs
August: .213/.328/.463 7 HRs 19 BBs
September/Oct: .352/.422/.852 11 HRs 12 BBs

This year was Howard's worst year all around. His batting average was pitiful, his OBP was 6th best among starters, and his slugging was significantly down. I want to make it clear for the record (those people who think like Howard Eskin), Ryan Howard's problem this year was not strikeouts. I had been saying this all year. Because I care about baseball, and want to sound intelligent when I talk about it, I actually made the effort to look up a few things on Ryan Howard. He finished this season with 199 Ks. He finished last year with 199 Ks. So right from the start, no one can say that his strikeout numbers are way up. It is still innaccurate to say that his strikeouts are a problem this year. Last year he accumulated those strikeouts in 648 PAs. This year he had 700 PAs. Clearly his K/PA ratio would be lower this year than last year.

One huge part of Ryan Howard's game that was way down this year was his walks. In 2006 he has 704 PAs and 108 BBs. In 2007, he has 648 PAs and 107 BBs. In 2008, he had 700 PAs and 81 walks. Now, in the past many of Howard's walks were of the intentional nature. 37, 35, 17 in each of the last three seasons. Possibly, Pat Burrell's insane start of the year forced pitchers to have to pitch to Howard, and not walk him. This effect doubled due to Howard's pitiful start.

Ryan Howard is a great offensive asset to the Phillies team. His defense is worse than a little leaguer's. There is really no honest way in my opinion that Ryan Howard should win the MVP. His OBP was worse than Albert Pujols batting average (Pujols also walks a ton). Not that this factors in alot, but Pujols defense is better than Howard's. I love Ryan Howard, but he does not deserve the MVP this year. Not by a long shot. Pujols is just one player that is ahead of him on the list of potential MVPs.

The Phillies are going to lose out again this year when Howard gets arbitration. Why not throw a bunch of money at guys like Hamels and Howard. You know you want them. Why have to go through this pain of arbitration each offseason with the possibility of lingering ill will (feelings of cheapness) when the player's contract is up. Make them happy, and maybe they'll play their whole careers here.

Next up: #7 Pedro Feliz 3B

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