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Friday, November 21, 2008

A lesson on Chase Utley and simple logic

Several media outlets (including Charlie's Manuel) have reported that Chase Utley will have hip surgery, sidelining him for 4-6 months. However, most of those sources have stated, implicitly or explicitly, that this injury and surgery will hinder the Phillies' chances of winning a second-consecutive World Series. Personally, I think that's ridiculous. Here's why:

Utley's hip injury has been speculated as early as July. Let's assume that speculation was UNtrue. This assumption means someone made an entirely false statement in July about Chase Utley's hip. Yet, only four months later, that random, unsubstantiated statement came true. This situation is so statistically improbable that it's not even worth considering. Utley has clearly been injured since as late as July, and if you disagree with this, then you're either a moron, or you know more than me (in which case, please explain in the comments).

The earliest published speculation that I could find (I didn't look very long) on Chase Utley's injured hip was July 30 at 11:46 am. At that time, the Phillies were in second place behind the Mets. The Phillies came back to win the division. The Phillies also came back to win the National League. And, they came back to win the World Series. Thus, if the Phillies can win the NL East, National League, and World (fuckin) Series with an injured Chase Utley, then why can't they win all three of those with a healthy Chase Utley?

Wait, you say he won't be ready by Opening Day? Officially, Utley will be out 4-6 months. When doctors state this range, they incorporate the worst-case scenrio (in this case, 6 months). The doctors do this to save their own asses, obviously. So unless the doctors leave a scalpel inside Utley's body, I feel that he will be back within the lower end of that range (4-5 months). And, guess what, Opening Day is 4.5 months away. When you factor in Utley's extreme work ethic, I feel that he will return at the lower end of the 4-5 month range. In layman's terms: if he is not back by Opening Day, I will be surprised.

I don't consider my above analysis unreasonable, by any stretch. Therefore, why is it less likely the Phillies will repeat with a healthy Utley even though they won with an injured one? If a writer wants to say that Utley might be out until June, go for it. It's true. But if a writer wants to say it's less likely the Phillies will repeat because of a November surgery, then he better be 100% right. And he isn't.

Feminists, excuse my gender bias.

1 comment:

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