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Sunday, October 19, 2008

Sox or Rays?

I'd rather face the Rays. They did have a better regular season record than the Sox, but they didn't have a better run differential, which, as we all know, is one of the best predictors of future success. Not only did the Sox have a better differential, it was almost 50% better. The Rays outscored their opponents by 103 in the regular season, while the Sox owned a +151 differential. Yes, they did lose Manny, but their offense actually picked up the pace after they acquired Jason Bay. I'm not saying Bay is better than Manny, but he's not significantly worse to change my desired World Series opponent.

Also, the Sox have a better ace (Josh Beckett over James Shields) and a better fourth starter (Tim Wakefield over Andy Sonnanstine in a landslide), while the other two matchups (John Lester-Scott Kazmir/Daisuke Matsuzaka-Matt Garza) are essentially washes.

For what it's worth (NOTE: not much), the Phils bats seem to slow down in cold weather, and Boston outdoors is generally colder than Tampa Bay indoors.

So, when you tune in to TBS tonight, enjoy The Steve Harvey Show until the second inning, and then start rooting for the exorcised Rays.

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