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95% Phillies, 4% Eagles/Flyers/Sixers/Big Five, 1% Nonsense .... Contact us: Scott Graham ~ Andy Musser

Friday, August 29, 2008

No relaxation without supplementation

I couldn't turn away from the computer without first supporting Musser's claim about the third base situation the last 2 days. Furthermore, from their offensive standpoint, certain points can be made as to why Feliz would have been better off facing Harden while Dobbs is better suited for Dempster.

While I was initially prepared to chalk up the K differential between Dobbs and Feliz as a draw, I actually made the effort to look up my stats, and it further supports my case. Dobbs has a much higher K/PA (36/194) than Feliz (48/392). We all know this isn't a huge deal because Howard's K/PA rate is ridiculous, and power comes along with the alarming whiffs, but as "The Book" (and common sense) says, a pitcher with a good K/BB ratio shuts down a batter who has a high K/BB ratio. Harden (K/BB of 162/45) would most likely do worse against Pedro Feliz (48/25) than Greg Dobbs (36/10).

Let's take this a step further. The book also likes to point out that groundball pitchers tend to own groundball hitters. Likewise, flyball pitchers more often do well against flyball hitters. Here are the breakdowns for the pitchers with the numbers signifying groundballs/ flyballs.

Harden: 88/143
Dempster: 241/ 166

Now the hitters? (As if you don't know where I'm going with this)

Feliz: 151/118
Dobbs: 47/63

Yes, there are some small samples in these groupings. However, as "The Book", and common knowledge, as well as Mr. Musser and I are concerned, playing Feliz (GB/Linedrive hitter) vs Harden (Flyball/ K pitcher), probably would have benefitted the Phillies more. Similarly, Dobbs (a slight flyball hitter) would have most likely done better against the groundball pitcher, Ryan Dempster.

Who the hell cares anyway though. It's just a game, right?

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