Charlie Manuel frequently makes poor strategic decisions. The 11-million dollar scoreboard in left field would probably do a similar job. We guarantee a post analyzing Manuel's decisions for every Phillies game. Please click on our aliases below to email us.

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Thursday, August 21, 2008

Game 127: Disaster realized (68-59)

Charlie Manuel really messed this one up tonight. Where do I begin?

We'll start in the top of the 7th inning with the score tied at 1 with Nationals' runners on second and third with two outs and Anderson Hernandez at the plate. Jamie Moyer had 98 pitches at this point in the game. Personally, I would bring in Brad Lidge to completely eliminate the threat and maybe even pitch the 8th. We know this isn't very realistic, however, so we'll analyze the next-best option. Moyer ended up allowing a base hit to make the game 2-1, and Chad Durbin then came in to successfully end the inning. There is absolutely no way a 45 year-old lefthanded pitcher with 98 pitches under his belt has a better chance of retiring a switch-hitter than a fresh reliever having a fantastic year. Terrible decision allowing Moyer to stay in, especially when he was removed after that batter anyway.

Now, let's analyze the worst decision of the night. The Phils held a 3-2 lead entering the top of the 8th inning. Ryan Zimmerman and Lastings Milledge were the first two hitters due up. Zimmerman was 5-13 with a .429 OBP and two doubles against Madson entering tonight's game. He is now 6-14. Lastings Milledge was 2-6 with a .429 OBP and a homer against Madson entering tonight's game. He is now 3-7. Both players ended up scoring and the Phils ultimately lost 4-3. It is absolutely obscene that Charlie Manuel is allowed to COMPLETELY ignore statistical evidence and just do whatever the hell he wants. The reason why Chad Durbin did not start the 8th is because Geoff Jenkins pinch-hit for Durbin with two outs and nobody on base in the bottom of the 7th when the Phils led 3-2. The correct decision is to scrap the 7.7% chance the Phils score that inning and allow Durbin to face Zimmerman and Milledge in the 8th (or, God forbid, use Lidge in the 8th). Durbin's numbers against those two? A combined 0-4 with a .000 OBP. Small sample size, I know. But it's better than guessing.

To add insult to injury, if they allowed Durbin to bat, Jenkins would have been available to pinch-hit for Ruiz in the 9th inning so Coste wouldn't have to face a righty.

Awful game all around. They're 2.5 games behind the Mets, and they're about to get their asses kicked by LA this weekend. When do the Sixers start?

2 comments:

Daniel said...

cool blog. its basis is unfortunate, but it's cool anyway.

Anonymous said...

Really insightful stuff guys. Keep it up.