Peter Laviolette isn't all that different from me

My apologies for the sparse posting on our part during the off-season.

I'm not too sure I've made it known on here, but I'm a pretty huge Flyers fan. The level of my interest in the Flyers rivals my love for the Phillies, so this winter should prove to provide me with a lot of enjoyment. I've basically been in love with Claude Giroux since his first game on the Flyers when he wore #56. I've been wondering if he chose that number because it's a multiple of 28. Needless to say, I've been into the HBO 24/7 program that follows the Flyers. Whether it's been HBO lauding Claude Giroux/following his recovery from the concussion, highlighting the insanity of Ilya Bryzgalov, or giving insight into the type of coach that Peter Laviolette is, I've been enjoying the show immensely (sans the Avery segments).

Peter Laviolette has shown that he's a pretty good motivator, but it's some of the other segments that have endeared me to him even more. His interaction with Steve Ott was incredible. He shoved an NHL player and told him to go F*** himself. Incredible. HBO showed him really giving it to the referees in Montreal. I've always wanted a Philadelphia coach to share the animosity that I have for officials. They're just awful. I'm sure their jobs are hard, but some of the calls that they make or miss are just inexcusable. Laviolette let the referee know that he missed a trip against Jagr, and didn't cease until he was finally in the locker room. What absolutely sealed my hatred for officials was when the referee who called a boarding (?) penalty on Talbot immediately admitted to him that it was a bad call, and that he was just adding up slight infractions that Talbot was committing during his shift. Really? Really? This was made public on HBO, and if that referee still has a job, then I guess Mike Pereira is the head of NHL officials as well.

Way to go Lavy.

Tim Tebow

Anyone else sick of hearing how much of a "Winner" Tebow is? It makes me sick. He's not a good NFL quarterback.

In 6 games since becoming the Broncos starter, Tebow has thrown 133 passes, completing only 61 of them. That's good for a 45.9 completion percentage. 773 yards in 6 games. Thats about 130 yds/gm. That's not good for a quarterback, and I don't care if you run - which he does. Since becoming a starter, Tebow has added 418 yards with his legs. Combine passing and rushing, and you get an average of 198.5 yds/gm. Taking a look around the rest of the league, here are QBs who have averaged more in passing yards alone than Tebow's total yardage:

Brees

Brady

Rodgers

E. Manning (really?)

Rivers

Stafford

Newton

Big Ben

Romo

Ryan

Flacco

Schaub

Freeman

Grossman

Kolb (haha)

Vick (damn)

Cutler

Fitzpatrick

Hasselbeck

Sanchez

Dalton

Bradford

McCoy

TAVARIS JACKSON

MATT MOORE

That's 25 QBs who average more yds/game passing than Tim Tebow can account for through the run and the pass.

But he wins?!!?!?! Well, maybe he wins because in 5 of the 6 games he's started (the 5 wins), his defense has allowed an average of 15 pts. In the game where his defense allowed 45 points, the Broncos lost (shocker).

15 pts/game. The 49ers are the only defense to average fewer than 15 pts allowed/game.

Maybe, just maybe, that's why the Broncos have won.

Is Mike Pereira dumber than Batman?

Batman doesn't even exist, but the answer to that headline is still affirmative.

Hear me out: do you remember the extra-innings game the Phillies played at home against Boston in 2009? Greg Dobbs hit a home run that would have won the game -- it should have been reviewed by instant replay -- but the home run was so high that it was taller than the foul pole. As a result, there was no way to "conclusively" overturn the call on the field. The only way that call could have been overturned is if Batman were the MLB commissioner rather than Allan H. Selig, because Batman would at least have the foresight to put lasers on top of each foul pole.

How does this relate to Mike Pereira? Because Pereira never lobbied the NFL for lasers on top of each field goal upright. If you don't think that vertical lasers would help the enforcement of field goal-calls, then you obviously didn't watch the Boise St./Nevada game last year.

I've always been convinced that Mike Pereira is the dumbest person in America, but I didn't realize until today that he's dumber than some people who don't even exist.

A look at the Papelbon signing

For some reason that I cannot fathom, I had it in my head that the Phillies new closer wasn't nearly as good as he is/has been. Taking a look at some of Papelbon's stats over his career:

K/9 is 10.67

BB/9 is 2.41

ERA 2.33

FIP 2.60

xFIP 2.16

Last year, he compiled 12.17 K/9 to go along with a 1.40 BB/9 rate which gave him over an 8 K/BB. I'm not crazy. I knew he was good, I just wasn't aware how good.

To put those numbers in perspective, Ryan Madson has had one season with a K/9 over 10, and Brad Lidge has a career BB/9 of 4.2 which isn't good. Lidge and Papelbon both signed with the Phillies for the same AAV. I think it's clear that the Phillies overpaid Lidge at least in comparison to Papelbon.

So, now we're all extremely ecstatic about the signing right? I am not so sure that I am. Yes, he's very good, but was it necessary to acquire such a high profile closer? I would have been perfectly content had the Phillies re-signed Madson. I also would have admired the Phillies had they sought out a lower profile reliever to fill the closer's role. I'm not about to say that this signing will surely handcuff the Phils from making other important moves with regards to their roster, but it just might.

I certainly believe they could have signed Madson for less than Papelbon. He doesn't have the same "resume" that Papelbon has - Madson just finished his first season where he was a full-time closer. Papelbon also has better stats. There were rumors this week that the Phillies offered Madson $44 Million over 4 years. The Pap deal is reportedly worth $50 Million for 4 years. I see this signing as setting the bar for Madson to probably make around what the Phillies offered him, so I'm not positive why they didn't spin this potential signing to bring back Madson, a comparable pitcher, for less money.

More importantly, in my opinion, the Phillies came into this off-season needing to fill two big holes: SS and Closer. It isn't even arguable in my opinion that getting a solid SS is more important than getting a solid closer. The huge chunk of cash they threw at Papelbon just might remove Rollins from the Phillies' future, which I would not be happy about. There aren't a lot of great SS options outside of Rollins and Reyes, and Freddy Galvis is almost certainly not the answer. In the minors, he has compiled a .246/.292 AVG/OBP. He reportedly is great defensively, but those are Wilson Valdez type numbers coming against minor league pitching.

Rollins will almost certainly not sign until Reyes does. Reyes is most likely the more coveted FA. He is slightly worse than Rollins defensively, and considerably better than Rollins with the bat. He is also younger. The only questions teams might have about Reyes is his attitude and his on-field antics. The Phillies really need to sign a quality SS this off-season because they are clearly trying to win now (Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Papelbon, Utley, Howard, Victorino, and Pence), and a less than stellar SS would not be ideal.

The Phillies might have proven that they don't handcuff themselves when it comes to acquiring players, but we'll just have wait and see how the rest of the roster fills out before we can truly judge the Papelbon signing.

Should Domonic Brown get more PAs in 2012 than Ryan Howard?

Ryan Howard had a wOBA of .282 in 2011 against left-handed pitching. John Mayberry’s career wOBA against LHP is .399. In fairness, Howard had a .358 wOBA against lefties in 2010, but since March 2008, he has a wOBA of only .310 against lefties.

The Phillies should platoon Howard and Mayberry at first base next season, but obviously this will never happen. It’s more likely that Mayberry will platoon with Domonic Brown, which is unfortunate for the offense (but probably good for the defense).

So, the issue is whether Domonic Brown can hit lefties better than Howard at this point in his career. Looking at Browns minor league splits, Brown consistently has an OBP in the minors over .370 against lefties. Even if Brown regresses significantly against major league lefties, his plate approach (eg, walking more often than Howard) will still provide him as a more valuable offensive player than Howard.

Am I writing Howard off too early? It’s possible. But I’d rather write Howard off slightly early than give up on Brown when he’s 24 years old. Howard will still get the majority of the starts at first base, and he can be a ridiculous pinch-hit option when a RHP is inserted from the bullpen to face Mayberry. Also, when Howard does start and a LOOGY comes in for Howard, you have the antidote (Mayberry) ready to go.

Mayberry can play every day while Howard is injured, and Brown will get the 500 PAs he desperately needs at this level. His defense is obviously shaky, but he clearly has more range than Ibanez.

Obviously Howard will not be platooned in the first year of the outrageous contract, and I'm not convinced Brown will even be on the roster, but it's still a move that Manuel should make.

In 2012, Manuel will have a new regularly-recurring mistake. Instead of complaining about Ibanez batting ahead of Ruiz each game, we will be calling for Brown in the lineup instead of Howard against most lefty starters.

Proposed Geographical Re-Alignment

As I stated in the comments yesterday, I'm in favor of contraction of the number of teams in MLB. This will almost definitely not happen, so I think the second best option (assuming the talks of Houston changing leagues is legit) would be to move re-align the divisions creating two leagues with an equal number of teams. As you can see below, I took this season's attendance statistics, and arranged them by percentages of seats sold rather than strictly by the total number of people drawn.

While I think that geographic re-alignment would help things in some cases by helping create more "natural" rivalries, I don't think it's just as simple as putting the all of the closest teams together. I quickly tried to assemble my 6 divisions of 5 teams each in a way that followed geography closely, while attempting to help those teams that have a hard time drawing fans by putting some of the more popular (?) teams in their divisions.

Again, this was thrown together quickly, and I would like to hear your opinions about this. I included Seattle with the CA teams because they their help drawing more than San Diego (which I find hard to believe). I also aligned the Florida teams with STL because STL draws more than either of the Texas teams. I think the Phils/Mets rivalry is more important than the Mets/Yankees rivalry. I would also like to the see the Phillies play the Pirates more.

Please let me know what you think. I won't call Selig to make this official until I hear back from the 5 people that read this site!

Oh yea, I'm color deficient so if my Excel colors don't match the Paint lines, I'm sorry. You can also click on the figures to enlarge.

AL teams to equal NL teams? Great... I think

I always thought it was absurd that the American League had 14 teams while the National League had 16 teams. According to MLBTraderumors.com, that might be changing. Apparently the Astros are undergoing a change in management, and will be moved to the AL West. This will result in both leagues having 15 teams as well as 3 divisions of 5 teams each. Everything will be equal. Initially, I thought this was awesome, but now I'm not so sure.

If there are an odd number of teams in each league, then there will need to be inter-league play all year round. The only thing I hate more than the Yankees is having to face them in the regular season (especially more often than the Colorado Rockies or any other team that doesn't play the Yankees). Of course, that's just my example. There will literally be inter-league play all season. This would be terrible.

My proposal? Send one of the NL Central teams to the AL (Astros are fine by me), and eliminate two teams. This would create 28 teams with an even amount in each league (unequal divisions though). I would propose to eliminate 6 teams, but that would cut profit too much and would be unrealistic. Contraction would spread out the talent in MLB better. Let's get rid of the Rays and the Marlins. They cannot support a fan base adequately as it is. If that's unrealistic because Miami is getting a new stadium, then eliminate the Rays, and find another team to eliminate. There are so many possibilities to fix MLB, but they probably will just make it worse.

NLDS Review: Cardinals score fewer runs than the Phillies

For the second straight year, the Phillies outscored the team that eliminated them from the playoffs.

GAME 1

Predicted score: Phillies 5, Cardinals 1
Actual score: Phillies 11, Cardinals 6

This was the only game I got right.


GAME 2

Predicted score: Phillies 3, Cardinals 0
Actual score: Cardinals 5, Phillies 4

This is definitely the worst loss of the series, and I’m putting the blame on Cliff Lee and Shane Victorino. Victorino failed to catch a flyball after taking a poor route. He still should have caught the ball even with his initial mistake. This is the second consecutive season where a Phillies outfielder dropped a flyball on the warning track in the most crucial loss of the series (Game 1 2010 NLCS).

Lee ran into his share of bad luck with BABIP, and the Lee defenders point to his high K/BB ratio (4.50) to illustrate Lee did not pitch very poorly. His strikeouts-per-batters-faced percentage was 29% for this game, higher than his season rate of 25.8%. However, the only non-BABIP stat that killed him was his walk-rate of 6.5% of the batters he faced, up 41% from his season rate. Only one of the batters he walked ended up scoring, but it was a leadoff walk to Lance Berkman that started the Cardinals’ 3-run rally to cut the Phils’ lead to one run.

The reason I wanted to face the Cardinals in round 1 is because I assumed game 1 would be an automatic victory with Halladay against Lohse, and because I figured the Phils would have a significant advantage in game 2 – it was Lee vs. either Carpenter on short rest for the first time ever, or Lee vs. Garcia on the road (his home/road splits are drastic).

The pitching advantage was evident in the first two innings, but Lee preceded the BABIP-mess with two walks in the first four innings. Avoiding the walks (the first one set up the Berkman walk, which started the worst inning of the game) may have eliminated the BABIP-luck in the first place.


GAME 3

Predicted score: Cardinals 3, Phillies 1
Actual score: Phillies 3, Cardinals 2

Had La Russa simply pitched to Carlos Ruiz in the 7th inning, the Phillies may have lost this series in four games. Here’s what I said before the series started about game three:

“If you're going to make any bet in this series, the under in this game is probably your best choice.”

The o/u was 7 runs.


GAME 4

Predicted score: Phillies 7, Cardinals 2
Actual score: Cardinals 5, Phillies 3

This was a frustrating game. It’s incredible to me that Ryan Howard took a first-pitch fastball in the first inning directly down the middle for a strike. The score was already 2-0, and Jackson had just thrown a first-pitch breaking ball to Pence which got lined into centerfield for a base-hit. For someone who swings at 3-0 sliders on a routine basis, the fact that Howard finally showed plate discipline in the one situation that called for the opposite was astounding. He paid for it by striking out looking (on a pitch that was outside), and the Phils’ first inning rally was ended on Pence’s caught-stealing (on a tag that was definitely late). If the umpires get either of those two calls correct, or Howard swings at the first pitch, I’d be writing the NLCS Game 1 post right now.


GAME 5

Predicted score: Phillies 3, Cardinals 2
Actual score: Cardinals 1, Phillies 0

“I think Halladay will defeat Carpenter, 3-2, but if the Cards win one of the first two games (which is a distinct possibility), don't expect a series victory.”

Something I forgot to mention in the NLCS Game 5 post: Why on Earth did Manuel have the infield back after Furcal’s lead-off triple? I was already envisioning a 1-0 loss at this point, except I thought Schumaker was going to hit a weak groundball for the cheap RBI. Halladay should have thrown a changeup to Schumaker after the curveball he fouled off his own foot. Instead, Halladay threw another curveball (not sure why, because it couldn’t have been better than the last curve, which didn’t result in a K anyway) and it was lined into right field. A changeup would have resulted in a groundout-RBI, which would have caused my brain to explode, or a K, which may have caused a Phillies win (perhaps in 20 innings, though).



Look at it this way: if Carpenter pitched lights-out in game 2 and pitched only slightly-above-average in game 5, the Phils would be playing the Brewers tonight. Instead, he pitched awful in game 2 and lights-out in game 5. The Phillies are eliminated because of variance, pure and simple. Oh, and because they had the inferior manager.

I don't think I'll write about the Phillies for a while. Raul Ibanez's contract is up, which is awesome. The Eagles are 1-4 despite a point differential better than five teams with better records (Tampa Bay has a -38 point diffrential with a winning record), which is Andy Reid's M.O.; I think the NFL has the worst officials in sports, so that will probably be the main content on this blog for the near future. For example, the Buffalo clock operator, the head referee, and the replay official should all be publicly humiliated for allowing the final second to run off the clock in the first half after the pass fell incomplete.

Thanks for reading this season; we'll be back for 2012.

NLDS Game 5: La Russa again out-manages Manuel, ending the 2011 run (2-3)

Let's keep this one relatively short, because even if Manuel did not make the following four mistakes, the Phils probably would have lost:

1) In the bottom of the 8th inning, the Phils had 7-8-9 batters due up (Polanco-Ruiz-Halladay).

Since May1, Polanco's OBP is .304, which is simply dreadful. The only reason why Mr. Graham and I haven't been entirely anti-Polanco for the last four months is because he plays above-average third-base defense, and, just as importantly, Wilson Valdez and Michael Martinez are even more useless offensively.

Ben Francisco, since May 1, has a .337 OBP. Since May 20, Francisco has a .358 OBP. He also hit a ball about 400 feet the last time he was allowed to play, and your team is only trailing by one run in the 8th inning.

Francisco has a much better chance of getting on base to start the inning while clearly possessing a better home run threat against Chris Carpenter (Francisco has relatively even splits; he's not significantly worse against RHPs than LHPs).

Manuel, with only six outs remaining in the entire season, judged that Polanco was the better option instead of Francisco. Shockingly, Polanco did not reach base.

2) After Carlos Ruiz grounded out to shortstop for the second out of that 8th inning, Manuel used Ross Gload to hit against Carpenter. Gload actually reached base on a strikeout. However, the reason this was a poor decision is that Gload has virtually no power. Gload may have had a better chance of reaching base against Carpenter than John Mayberry would have (it's probably a negligible difference, though), but it's obvious that Mayberry has a better chance of hitting a ball over the fence. With 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th inning and no one on base, trailing by one run, you just have to throw Mayberry up there and hope for a home run. If not, you have the top of your order in the 9th. Gload luckily reached base, the pinch-runner (Martinez) was too afraid to run against Molina, and the Phils didn't score.

3) In the bottom of the 5th inning, Roy Halladay was at the plate with nobody on base and two outs. Carpenter threw a ball on the first pitch. At this point, my immediate thought is that Halladay should not swing for the rest of the at-bat and hope for a walk. Carpenter would certainly be rattled by such a mistake, and it's feasible that Rollins could take advantage of a "mistake pitch" and line it into section 105. However, the coaching staff on this team is so poor that Halladay wasn't told to take the next pitch. Halladay swung at a 1-0 curveball, grounding out to end the inning.

Even if this were opening day in April, I don't want my pitcher swinging at any 1-0 pitch, let alone a breaking ball in the dirt. Had Manuel simply told Halladay to take for a strike (which should be the pitchers' offensive strategy 99% of the time), it would have been a 2-0 count. Carpenter then would have had to throw 3 out of the next 4 pitches to avoid a walk, and the crowd would have been going berserk if they sensed a Sabathia-Myers moment. Unfortunately, Jimy Williams wasn't around to prevent Halladay -- the worst-hitting Phils' pitcher -- from swinging.

4) This is the worst mistake of the game, something that we've been criticizing on this blog for over three years. Bottom 7, only nine outs to go. Ryan Howard leads off the inning and actually manages to take three consecutive pitches. Incredibly, all three of those pitches were out of the strike zone. The Phillies have been shut out for six straight innings at this point, and they never really came close to scoring. Carpenter just threw three straight balls to the leadoff batter -- this should set off a mild celebration in the dugout. Assuming Carpenter's chances of throwing a strike on any given pitch is 75% (which is absolutely high -- the average strike percentage is below sixty percent), the odds of him throwing three straight strikes is .75*.75*.75 = 42%. That number doesn't even account for Carpenter's hesitancy to "stay away" from the biggest home-run threat in the lineup.

What happens? Carpenter throws the fourth pitch out of the strike zone, and Howard swings. It didn't go over the fence, and Howard did not get BABIP-lucky.

It was at this point I gave up on the season.

Speaking of the Sabathia-Myers moment, would Charlie Manuel even have a world championship if the Myers plate-appearance ended the same way as Halladay's at-bat? It's astounding to me that Manuel gets a free pass from this fanbase simply because Brad Lidge threw 48 consecutive successful 9th innings.

The NLDS Review will follow in the next few days.

NLDS Game 4: Manuel refuses to start (or use) Mayberry, Phils lose (2-2)

I wrote in the series preview that John Mayberry should start game 4 instead of Raul Ibanez despite Edwin Jackson's right-handedness. I also wrote that Manuel would make a mistake by starting Ibanez in game 4, despite having nearly half Mayberry's walk-rate. This is relevant because Jackson walks almost 4 batters per 9 innings, a large number. Manuel started Ibanez, of course, and Raul went out and posted an 0-for-4 line with three strikeouts.

The offense only scored three runs (two off Jackson), partially because Jackson walked only one batter the entire night. Chase Utley, one of the few players with above-average plate discipline on this team, was the one who drew that walk. The other players on this team with high walk-rates are Ruiz, Francsico, Mayberry, and Domonic Brown. Out of those four players, only one appeared in the game. Only three were in the state of Missouri.

It is not shocking that a team struggles to score runs when the lineup is not optimized.

It's also not shocking when the manager misses obvious pinch-hit opportunities; however, given that Mayberry was the one who should have pinch-hit for Ibanez (7th inning) and then Howard (8th inning), it's almost expected that the manager isn't going to make the correct decision.

Let's start with the top of the seventh. The Phillies are down three runs with only 9 outs to go, and Tony La Russa brings in LHP Arthur Rhodes to face Raul Ibanez. Since Ibanez is the first batter Rhodes would be facing, had Manuel used a RHB to pinch-hit in this situation, La Russa would not be allowed to switch pitchers. That is, either Francisco or Mayberry (my choice would be Francisco's plate discipline over Mayberry's power simply because of the 3-run deficit with no baserunners) would be guaranteed to face a lefty in that spot. More important than the potential matchup was the actual matchup -- Ibanez is simply dreadful against lefties this year, with an OBP below .270. Allowing Ibanez to remain in the game at that point is simply asinine managing, and Manuel was rewarded with yet another K from Ibanez.

La Russa then immediately removed Rhodes from the game, bringing in a righty to get the final two outs.

Let's go to the worst decision of the game: two outs, man on second, with the score 5-3. Ryan Howard came to the plate against RHP Fernando Salas representing the tying run. If, at this point, you thought Howard was going to face Salas in this plate appearance, then you are probably new to the sport. La Russa made the easiest decision of his life by bringing in the lefty Rzepczynski to face Howard.

Since Howard's career OBP is only .311 against lefties (this year it's and Ibanezian .286) with a 2011 OPS-vs.-LHPs under .670, and since John Mayberry is probably a better hitter than half the Phillies lineup right now, and since Rzepczynski's splits are HUGE, it's a disgrace that Howard was allowed to hit in that situation.

I understand it's more likely that Domonic Brown is the winning pitcher in a 2011 World Series game than it is for Manuel to ever pinch-hit for "Big Piece," but the fact remains: Rzepczynski has a career .784 OPS-allowed against RHBs, and .573 against lefties. Howard is your worst starting batter against lefties not named Ibanez. Mayberry is a beast against left-handed pitching. This was actually the easiest decision of the game; again, it was a spot where La Russa wouldn't have been able to match a righty against Mayberry.

It clearly would have been unconventional to remove Howard at that point in the game, but it obviously would have increased the Phillies chances of winning. Meanwhile, the fool in the other dugout is about as unconventional as a manager can get, and he's running circles around Manuel this series.

Other than walking Ruiz to face Francisco in game three, La Russa has done just fine this series. If I could say the same thing about Manuel, perhaps there would be no game tonight.

I'd put the Phillies chances of winning tonight's game somewhere between 55 and 60%. Probably closer to 55. It will be Roy Halladay, MD, vs. Chris Carpenter at 8:37 EDT.

NLDS Game 3: This is why you don't use Madson in Game 1 (2-1)

Both managers screwed up today. Only one manager, however, has Ben Francisco on his team.

Here are the two main mistakes:

1) La Russa intentionally walked Carlos Ruiz with a man on second and two outs in the 7th inning. Why? He has to know Ben Francisco will be the next batter, and Francisco owns a .343/.425 OBP/SLG off lefties in his career. Carlos Ruiz is negligibly better against lefties, with a .363/.413 line. Why are you adding a baserunner in a tie game to pitch to a similar hitter? Completely illogical, unless you believe that La Russa was making this move in order to force Cole Hamels out of the game. However, Hamels had 117 pitches after 6 innings, so it's very likely he was coming out of the game anyway. Bad move from La Russa, and it cost him the game.

2) Manuel allowed Brad Lidge to pitch to one-too-many batters. Antonio Bastardo came into the game with a runner on first base and nobody out in the 8th inning, and he retired the only batter he faced. The next spot up was the 9-slot, so La Russa used Matt Holliday as a pinch-hitter to represent the tying run. Manuel went with Brad Lidge to face Holliday, not a bad move considering Lidge's slider is effective against RHBs. Holliday singled off Lidge, which then brought Rafael Furcal to the plate with two men on base. Furcal is a switch hitter, Lidge has always been worse against lefties than RHBs, and Lidge's fastball is not nearly as reliable in 2011 than in the past. This was a no-brainer situation: just bring in Madson now.

Unfortunately, Manuel showed his irrationl aversion to Madson's pitching more than 1 inning. He left Lidge in the game to face Rafael Furcal, batting lefthanded. The only reason to leave Lidge in the game than use Madson is that Manuel is afraid of using Madson for more than one inning. However, once Furcal got a cheap single to load the bases, thenManuel brought in Madson. It's outrageous that Manuel is willing to use Madson for 5 outs, but also unwilling to allow him, rather than Lidge, to face Furcal. It's inherently contradictory, and both Madson and Manuel got extremely lucky on the hard-hit double play that followed.

If that line drive is 5 feet to the right or left of Chase Utley, this section would read more like an obituary than a footnote. Manuel plays with fire and wins again.

Although Manuel made only this one mistake today, the fact that he used Ryan Madson in a 7-run game on Saturday has caused an entirely avoidable situation: Madson has now thrown in 3 of the past 4 days (the only day he hasn't thrown was the day without a game), and it is possible he will be unavailable to pitch in Game 4. Even if he is available to pitch, it's very possible that he will be less-than-100-percent if he does appear in game four.

Certainly, Manuel made no mistake with his usage of Madson tonight. If Manuel were as aggressive with Madson in the regular season as he was tonight, perhaps the Phillies would have won 110 games. Let's revisit the original mistake from Saturday's game in regards to Madson. This is what I wrote after game one:

"I probably would have left Stutes in the game for one or two more batters. It's possible that Ryan Madson will need to pitch in all four playoff games (that would be four games in five days, something he was unable to do earlier in the year in Washington). Madson should be treated as gold in this bullpen given the relative unreliability around him, so bringing him into the game with an 11-4 lead was pretty ridiculous"

I stated that "it's possible that Ryan Madson will need to pitch in [the first] four playoff games," but now, it's very likely that Madson will be needed in all four. Manuel was reckless in using Madson in game one in a situation where the win-expectancy was over 99%, and now it may be time to pay the Piper. If Madson is unavailable/less-than-100-percent in an appearance in game four, the blame from the media will fall on Madson; however, the reality is that Manuel has created his own mess. Hopefully Oswalt can bail him out in the same fashion as Madson today.

Manuel got lucky this afternoon, and La Russa did not. The Phillies look to expire the Cardinals tomorrow night at 6:07 pm when Roy Oswalt faces RHP Edwin Jackson.

NLDS Game 2: La Russa outmanages Manuel (1-1)

Despite the fact that Tony La Russa moved Chris Carpenter up to pitch game 2 (a questionable decision in my opinion), he still managed to outmanage Charlie Manuel on Sunday night.

Since I was at the game on Sunday night, it was hard for me to fully appreciate just how much TLR's complaining about the strike zone really affected Jerry Meals' calls. I kind of got the idea after the Utley backwards K by his reaction, but apparently it was pretty bad. Should TLR be ridiculed for his complaints? Absolutely not. It should be up to the umpires to call strikes (actual strikes) and block out the complaints. I wish Manuel/Vick/Andy Reid would get on umpires and referees more to try and get calls, and I don't understand why they don't. It just sucks in this instance that the opposition's complaints came back to bite the Phils.

Fast forward to the 7th inning. Allen Craig lead off with a triple and Albert Pujols was due up. The score was tied 4-4. Cliff Lee was still in the game at the time. Ideally, Manuel would have brought Ryan Madson into the game right there. The Cardinals bullpen was shutting the Phillies down, and Manuel should have done everything he could (read: use his best reliever) to keep him on third. Manuel let Lee stay in the game (not the worst possible decision in my opinion), and Pujols lined a single to left. That situation was extremely high leverage, and begged for the use of Ryan Madson.

A lot of complaints have been directed toward TLR using 3 pitchers in the 8th inning against the Phillies. I predicted each one, and being in the stands, didn't really mind having to sit through the changes and the long bottom of the 8th. It's part of the game, and TLR CLEARLY outmanaged Manuel in that aspect. He utilized his bullpen's strengths to get out the heart of the Phillies order. I don't understand the boos from the fans unless they were booing because they knew the Cardinals would have the upper-hand after the pitching changes.

The Phillies desperately need Cole Hamels to come through huge tonight, and I only hope that Jaime Garcia doesn't completely neutralize Ryan Howard. Oh yeah, not that it will happen, but I want Victorino batting 3rd and Pence 5th.

NLDS Game 1: Offense wins it (1-0)

Charlie Manuel once again outmanages an opponent in the playoffs, this time with the Phillies beating the Cardinals, 11-6, after overcoming a 3-run deficit.

Neither Manuel nor La Russa managed all that poorly yesterday -- Roy halladay simply out-pitched Kyle Lohse -- but La Russa seemed to concede the game by not bringing in a lefty to face Ryan Howard while the game was still within reach.

In the 7th inning with the Phillies ahead 6-3, La Russa removed his best lefty (I don't feel like spelling his name) after facing Chase Utley, who knocked a single to load the bases with nobody out for Hunter Pence. La Russa brought in Mitchell Boggs to face Hunter Pence. At this point, I thought it was obvious La Russa would make another pitching change after Pence's AB. Pence hit a weak groundball to the pitcher, resulting in an out at home plate. I was surprised that La Russa kept the RHP in the game to face Howard, as if La Russa figured the game was over anyway the way Halladay was throwing. Howard hit a sac-fly, and the Phils scored 2 more runs after that off Boggs to put the game out of reach.

Why not bring in Arthur Rhodes to face Howard with one out? A strikeout or a double play is a real possibility in that situation, so La Russa either conceded the game in the 7th inning or he made a horrendous managerial blunder. I'm guessing it's both.

Charlie Manuel had a good game, leaving Chase Utley in the two-spot. That move alone caused the above managerial mistake from La Russa. We always said that another reason to split up the lefties is because managers generally don't like to make back-to-back-to-back pitching changes (eg, lefty for Utley, new righty for Pence, new lefty for Howard). Manuel splits up the lefties and it immediately pays off.

It is a very good sign that Manuel removed Raul Ibanez for pinch-runner/defensive replacement John Mayberry in the 7th inning. One of the craziest Manuel moments of the year was when Manuel actually used Raul Ibanez in a game as a defensive replacement in the 9th inning, removing the much faster (stronger arm too) Ben Francisco. I wondered if Manuel actually had a warped judgment of Ibanez, but the fact that he's using Mayberry as a defensive replacement in game 1 (it's possible that he removed Ibanez because it became a blowout; that is, if the score were 4-3 instead of 9-3 he may not have made the move) is a good sign overall.

The only strange thing from Manuel came when he allowed Roy Halladay to bat in the 8th inning with a 6-run lead. At this point in the year, I don't want Halladay at the plate when the Phillies have a 99.9% chance of winning a game. Injury risk is small, but there's no potential benefit to Halladay batting/pitching with a 6-run lead with three outs to go. Once the Phillies stretched the lead to 8 runs, Halladay was removed for Stutes. At least Manuel removed him when it got to 8, but he should be using the same strategy up by 6 as well.

Also, I probably would have left Stutes in the game for one or two more batters. It's possible that Ryan Madson will need to pitch in all four playoff games (that would be four games in five days, something he was unable to do earlier in the year in Washington). Madson should be treated as gold in this bullpen given the relative unreliability around him, so bringing him into the game with an 11-4 lead was pretty ridiculous (the bases were loaded, so it was the equivalent of a 4-run game with the bases empty and one out: a situation where Madson should never appear).

I question the redundancy of having Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, and Vance Worley in the bullpen at the same time. Is it necessary to carry three long-men in the bullpen with this rotation in a five-game series? One of them is certianly expendable (I love Blanton but I would make him the odd-man out), and David Herndon was the perfect pitcher to come into the game instead of Madson. The lead was large enough where you could have used another pitcher before Madson, and Herndon is actually pitching better than Stutes right now. Only one problem -- Herndon was the 26th man, left off the roster for three-long men.

These are small mistakes unlikely to hurt the team, but if Madson has to appear in the next three games (small chance but definite possibility), his Game 4 performance may be an interesting one.

Tonight the Phillies look to put their foot on St. Louis's throat at 8:37 when Cliff Lee faces RHP Chris Carpenter.

NLDS Breakdown: St. Louis is dangerous

The Phillies are overwhelming favorites in the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, and for good reason. With Roy Halladay facing Kyle Lohse in Game 1 and Roy Oswalt set to face Edwin Jackson in Game 4, they own two huge pitching advantages in the first four games. However, Game 2 (Carpenter vs. Lee) and Game 3 (Hamels vs. Garcia) are not tilted nearly as much in the Phils' favor. Considering St. Louis's league-leading offense, it is not hard to imagine a series that ends up 2-2 back in Philly on Friday night.

That said, it's just as easy to imagine a Phils' sweep:

GAME 1

Tonight the Phillies face Kyle Lohse, an average pitcher who is currently having an above-average year. It's safe to say this is the best season he's ever had, thanks to his lowest walk rate of his career, best home-run rate, and second-best K/BB ratio.

However, he's also benefiting from a low HR/FB ratio (7.2% for 2011, more than 25% better than his career mark) and a BABIP of .272, down from his career mark of .305.

Roy Halladay, on the other hand, is Halladay.

With Matt Holliday's absence in game 1 combined with the horrendous St. Louis defense (their lineup is so powerful because they have several defenders playing "up" on the defensive spectrum), I think tonight's game will be a relatively easy one for the Phils.

Lohse's career BB rate against RHBs is only 5.6%, compared to 8.2 against lefties. His OPS allowed against LHBs is .806 for his career and .756 against RHBs. For these reasons, I will not object to a lineup that features Raul Ibanez in left field rather than John Mayberry. If Ibanez is still playing defense in the 9th inning with a lead, however, I will be irate if Mayberry isn't used as a defensive replacement, a la Eric Bruntlett (a worse defender than Mayberry) for Pat Burrell.

Phils win game 1 by a 5-1 score.

GAME 2

Chris Carpenter will pitch on Sunday on only three days' rest for the first time in his career. Carpenter's career OPS-allowed vs. LHBs is .757, with a .331 OBP. As a comparison, Roy Oswalt's career OPS-allowed vs. LHBs is .694 (it's even lower against righties). Even Cliff Lee, an entirely less-dominant pitcher for the first half of his career, doesn't own a split as poor as Carpenter's.

Carpenter's OPS-allowed against RHBs is below .660.

His relatively mediocre performance against lefties is an encouraging sign for Phillies fans, especially considering it will be his first ever start on short rest.

Also encouraging for Phillies fans are Lance Berkman's career splits: Batting left-handed, OPS of 1.009; righty, .778. That's insanity.

If Matt Holliday is out for Sunday, which seems likely, Lee's performance should only get better.

Five of the Phillies eight starters will be left-handed, and the Phillies' three right-handed batters (Pence, Polanco, Ruiz) do not perform significantly worse against RHPs compared to LHPs.

Phillies win 3-0.

GAME 3

This one is pretty much a toss-up. Garcia owns OPS-allowed vs. RHB and LHB at .686 and .672, respectively. He is also a much better pitcher at home than on the road.

Hamels has the same advantage over Berkman that Lee has, simply because Berkman is significantly less dangerous from the right side of the plate.

If you're going to make any bet in this series, the under in this game is probably your best choice. Since Howard is neutralized against lefties, Utley is nowhere near the batter he used to against LHPs, and Manuel may actually be stubborn enough to not start John Mayberry in this game, I'm going to give the Cardinals a 3-1 victory in game three.

GAME 4

Oswalt vs. Jackson. I am convinced that Game 4 in the NLCS against San Francisco was the reason why Ruben Amaro, Jr. gave Cliff Lee that huge contract. By signing Lee, he transformed a three-ace rotation into one of the best of all time. Now, instead of Joe Blanton starting game four, you have an ace. Now, the Phillies would actually have the pitching advantage in this game had Blanton actually been the starter. The fact that Oswalt is starting against Jackson, however, makes this the biggest advantage for the Phils out of any of these games.

Edwin Jackson has a career 3.7 BB/9, easily the highest of any of the Cardinals starters. He does not have enough strikeouts to make up for this high total, as his K/BB ratio is well under 2.00. Jackson is a right-hander, but he has even splits against RHBs and LHBs, .770 OPS and .778, respectively. As a result, the Phillies must start Mayberry in this game as well. He is easily more patient than Ibanez, which is going to be the biggest key in this game against Jackson. The fact that Mayberry is better defensively will only make it worse when Ibanez is announced as the left-fielder for game 4.

Phils win anyway, 7-2, and they move onto round two.

If the Cardinals somehow manage to force a game 5, the fifth game of the series is pretty much a toss-up as well. I think Halladay will defeat Carpenter, 3-2, but if the Cards win one of the first two games (which is a distinct possibility), don't expect a series victory.

The lineup for Game 1 is as follows: Rollins, Utley, Pence, Howard, Victorino, Ibanez, Polanco, Ruiz, Halladay. That's about as much as we can expect -- if you told me one month ago that Utley would be batting second against a righty in game 1 of the NLDS, I would have bet significant money against you.

Of course, the reason behind the lineup change is flawed -- Manuel is not doing it specifically to break up the lefties, but because Utley is not "hitting for power". We've been over the reasons why your best hitter (eg, Utley from 2005-2010) should bat second instead of third (the 3-batter often bats with 2 outs and no runners), and also why Utley and Howard should never bat back-to-back (LOOGYs). Even though Manuel's route to the destination was terrible, at least he wasn't stubborn enough to trot out the inefficient lineup.

Manuel has been getting incredible amounts of praise for the lineup change, which is absurd. When Andy Reid removes Casey Matthews from the starting lineup after three games, the whole city says "WHAT TOOK YOU SO LONG???". When Manuel splits up the lefties after 158 games, the whole city says "WHAT A GREAT IDEA!".

If Manuel had this lineup operating properly since 2008, perhaps the failures in the playoffs never would have occurred.

Game 162: Awesome (102-60)

The Phillies finished the regular season with 102 wins setting a franchise record. They closed out the Braves postseason hopes with David Herndon, Justin DeFratus, Michael Schwimer (2 innings), and Michael Stutes. I don't think it can get much better than that.

I don't think I've ever witnessed so many outcomes finishing exactly the way I wanted them to during the regular season. The Rays coming back from a 7-0 deficit, the Cardinals routing Brett Myers and the Astros, the Red Sox (read: Jonathan Papelbon) blowing a save against the Baltimore Orioles. Bottom line? No one-game tiebreakers. The Phillies will face the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS. They will never face the Braves in the 2011 playoffs.

Roy Halladay will face TBD at some time on Saturday.