Game 16 - 23: Manuel pretends he gets it, clearly does not (9-14)

Game 16: Umpire blows call, Phillies lose opener to Cards (6-10)

In the Phillies series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals, the first base umpire blew a fair/foul call in the top of the 4th inning.  Yadier Molina hit a hump-back liner down the right field line, and the ball was immediately called fair by Alan Porter.  Utley, who was running toward the ball at the time it struck down, was irate at the call.  It's a little disturbing that a player on the run has a better idea of a fair/foul call than a stationary human being standing on the foul line.  It's hard to say the game outcome would have been different had the correct call been made, but it couldn't have hurt.  Hamels struck out the next two batters, so maybe the score still would have been 0-0.  The Phillies couldn't muster too much offense against Adam Wainwright, and ended up on the short end of the score.  Maybe that can be attributed in part to the fact that Freddy Galvis batted 2nd (yes, he had a double in the game, but Jon Jay should have caught the ball).  One of the things that irks me the most about the way Manuel manages is how he simply plugs players into the lineup where the person he's replacing usually bats.  Similarly, it bothers me when Manuel puts horrendous batters in the 2-hole (see: Wilson Valdez).  Galvis should never bat second.

Game 18: Beltran homers again, Galvis still batting 2nd (7-11)

That is all.

Game 20: Phillies score 1 real run, win 3-2 (9-11)

Jonathan Pettibone made his major league debut and allowed two home runs.  The Phillies somehow managed to outscore the Pirates by having the pitcher walk and score on a wild pitch and by getting hit with a pitch with the bases loaded and two outs after they loaded the bases with 0 outs.  I'll take it.

Game 21: Utley given day off, Phillies lose (9-12)

Utley was given a day off in the second game of the Pirates series.  Manuel used Galvis to play 2nd, and batted him second.  Galvis had 3 PA and saw a total of 8 pitches.  The Phillies only managed to score 0 runs in the game against John Locke's first cousin 9 times removed.  The Phils lineup ended up with 4 hits, and ruined Cole Hamels best start of the season.

Game 22: Utley bats 2nd, Halladay pitches well, Phillies still lose (9-13)

So, we've been calling for Chase Utley to bat 2nd for years now.  Lineup optimization suggests the best batter in a lineup should bat 2nd.  Chase Utley fits this mold.  I'm aware that lineup optimization doesn't yield enormous results, but when you combine batting your best hitter second with the fact that it splits up Utley and Howard, it really should be utilized every game.  However, in this situation, it actually makes me angry that Manuel employs this strategy.  He only used this lineup because the Pirates starting pitcher, Wandy Rodriguez, is left-handed.  The move should be done to minimize the effectiveness of LH relief pitching.  By splitting up Utley and Howard, opposing managers need to decide if they're going to let the RHB between Utley and Howard face a LHP, or if they're going to make multiple moves to utilized matchups.

Halladay pitched well, Utley and Howard had hits, but the Phillies still lost.

Game 23: Manuel uses Aumont to pitch to LHB (9-14)

With the score tied 3-3 in the top of the 8th inning, Charlie Manuel used Phillippe Aumont.  Aumont faced 4 batters and allowed 3 of them to reach base.  Garrett Jones (LHB) was then inserted into the game as a pinch hitter.  With the bases loaded, and the score tied, it's imperative that Manuel uses one of his LH relief pitchers to pitch to Jones.  Instead, he stuck with Aumont, who allowed a 2-run double that essentially sealed the game.  In this case, Manuel knows if he inserts a LH, Garrett Jones will be forced to face him.  Instead, he essentially hands the Pirates the game.  Adams or Papelbon could have been used after a LH faced Jones, but that would make too much sense.

 

Games 8 - 15: Manuel still doesn't get it (6-9)

We apologize for the severely delayed posting/updates.  This post will attempt to summarize the 19 games that we've failed to post.  I will be going through box scores to try and jog my memory.  If for some reason there's a specific game or event you have in mind and I miss it, feel free to bring it up for discussion in the comments.  If a game doesn't get mention, I've either missed an event or it's business as usual for Manuel.

Game 10: Foreshadowing (probably the 100th time we've commented on this though.  (5-5)

The Phillies struggled to score against the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco in the series opener.  With the game tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 9th inning, Charlie Manuel used Phillippe Aumont to pitch to the heart of the Marlins order (yes, it consists of Polanco, Ruggiano, and Dobbs, but still).  Papelbon was available.  Manuel saved his best reliever for an inning that potentially could have never happened.  It didn't come back to bite him on that night.

Game 11: Not the foreshadowing I was referring to, but it was a perfect set up! (5-6)

The very next night, the Phillies struggled to score against Jose Fernandez.  Cole Hamels was likewise able to stifle the Marlins by holding them to one run (on a hit by Jose Fernandez).  The game was tied 1-1 in the bottom of the 9th, and Manuel used... Phillippe Aumont again.  This time, the strategy backfired and the Phillies lost.  The Phillies did not play on April 11th, so Papelbon would have only had to pitch for his second consecutive night (exactly what Aumont was asked to do).  It wasn't a save situation, so Manuel didn't feel it was important enough to win the game.

Game 13: Horst > Papelbon, Bastardo, and Adams (6-7)

In a tie game, Manuel used Jeremy Horst to pitch to a PH followed by the top of the Reds lineup.  This all occurred in the bottom of the 8th inning with the heart of the Phillies lineup due up the next half inning (yes, it did include Galvis, but still).  Horst gave up runs, and the Phillies ended up losing.

Game 14 (Parts 1 and 2): Phillies lose because Manuel doesn't care (6-8)

This game was suspended going into the bottom of the 9th inning due to a brutal downpour.  Over the first 8 innings, the Phillies and Reds were scoreless with Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo posting all 0s.  Upon resumption of the game, Manuel decided to use... Phillippe Aumont(!) to pitch to the heart of the Reds lineup (Cozart, Votto, Phillips, and Bruce) no "but still"s here.  Aumont and the Phillies lost the game in 9 minutes.  Papelbon, Adams, and Bastardo all had off on Monday (Pap and Adams had off Tuesday as well), so there's no reason why Phillippe Aumont should have begun the 9th inning.  Aumont isn't as bad as some of the Phillies relievers in years past, so this isn't the most egregious error Manuel has ever made, but there is still no excuse.

There will be another post (or posts summing up the remainder of the missed games) coming shortly.  Again, sorry for the delay.

Game 7: Roy Halladay is not Roy Halladay anymore (2-5)

On Monday evening, I couldn't help but really feel bad for Roy Halladay.  It was his second outing of 2013, and at the time it looked like he really had run into a wall.  His velocity had been down dating back to last season, but it really seemed like he couldn't even locate the ball like he once could.  Halladay didn't finish the 5th inning because he was pulled for Chad Durbin who allowed two of Halladay's inherited runners to score. Down 7-1, the Phillies didn't stand much of a chance against Matt Harvey who only allowed 3 hits and 2 walks to go along with 9 Ks.

Game 6: Phillies fall short of comeback, lose series to Royals (2-4)

The Phillies jumped out to a quick lead last Sunday as they scored four runs in the first inning.  Anyone would think that the lead would be safe with Cole Hamels on the mound, but he gave up 8 runs by the 6th inning.  7 of those runs were knocked in by Billy Butler.

Not really much to mention in terms of strategy in this game.  The Phillies fell short by 1 runs despite a nice little rally in the 9th inning.

Game 5: Phils win in 9th (2-3)

Through 4 innings on Saturday night, John Lannan pitched well in his first regular season start with the Phillies.  His overall line wasn't bad either - 7 IP 5 H 0 BB and 5 Ks.  Manuel left Lannan in to pitch the top of the 7th where he allowed the 3rd run of the night, but his pitch count was still low, he was due to face the bottom of the lineup, and he did not bat in the bottom of the 6th.  No complaints here.

Everything pretty much went according to the typical Manuel script through the top of the 9th inning with Adams pitching in the 8th, and Bastardo used in the 9th since the Phillies were only down 2 runs.

The bottom of the 9th started out with 3 consecutive walks by Utley, Howard, and Young.  Domonic Brown and John Mayberry both struck out.  Many people are complaining that Brown and Mayberry both watch fastballs over the plate for strike 1.  I was glad to see Dom Brown taking in his AB since the Royals Closer, Greg Holland, couldn't find the plate.  Had Dom Brown actually swung, I'd probably be complaining that he wasn't taking.  I don't blame Mayberry for taking either since Holland technically threw only 1 strike to Brown (he swung at two good pitches in the dirt).

Kevin Frandsen was used to PH with 2 outs and the bases loaded, and he swung at a first pitch fastball (probably picked up on the trend to Young and Mayberry), and essentially duplicated Jimmy Rollins' walk-off double against Broxton from 2009 NLCS Game 4.  Phillies win!

Game 4: I have to start dealing with Phillies Interleague play already? (1-3)

Kyle Kendrick took the mound for the Phillies home opener on Friday afternoon.  He's the fourth starter for the Phillies this year, but let's hope he can perform up to 3rd starter standards (I'm assuming Roy Halladay will miss time at some point).

Yesterday's game started out great.  Kyle Kendrick was retiring the Royals, and the Phillies scored early on some singles in the first, two homers in the 2nd by Dom Brown(!) and Erik Kratz.  Utley doubled and stole third in the third before Howard knocked him in.  Everything seemed great until the Kendrick got into some two-out trouble in the top of the 6th inning.  The Royals had 2nd and 3rd with two outs and Billy Butler up.  Manuel decided to intentionally walk Billy Butler to bring up lefty Alex Gordon.

The Alex Gordon AB was clearly the highest-leverage situation in the game.  The Phillies were up 4-1, and the Royals were threatening to score.  Manuel decided to go with LHP Jeremy Horst.  Horst had decent numbers in his small sample-size last season, but Antonio Bastardo has a considerably higher K% than Horst, and has been in the majors for considerably longer than Horst.  The Alex Gordon AB is EXACTLY why Bastardo is on this team.  Manuel went with Horst, who gave up a 3-run triple.  To make matters worse in my opinion, Horst came out to start the 7th inning!  Bastardo used to be the "8th inning guy".  Mike Adams is now that guy (as much as rolls infuriate me).  So, it's not even like Manuel was saving Bastardo for the 8th.  He just didn't use him.

It was also a possibility to have Papelbon come in and pitch to Butler, but I think that's expecting a little much from Charlie.  In this case, Manuel had some options on how to handle the Butler/Gordon ABs, and he failed.

I personally believed the game was pretty much over at this point, but Durbin helped sealed the deal in the 7th after Horst got into more trouble.  I don't blame Dom for diving on the Getz triple.  I think two runs would have scored if he'd let the ball bounce in front of him, so it was worth the risk of the extra run to try and get the out there.  Brown missed the ball, and the Phillies dropped the 1st game of the dreadful Interleague schedule to the Kansas City Royals

John Lannan, hopefully he doesn't break Utley's hand, takes the hill tonight against Luis Mendoza, hopefully he didn't learn how to stop on his skates, at 7:10 PM.

Game 3: Cliff Lee gets a W!! (1-2)

To be honest, I was paying more attention to the Flyers than the Phillies on Thursday night (as I will be for the remainder of the season when the two teams overlap), but there really isn't much to talk about anyone in terms of in-game moves from Manuel.

Cliff Lee had a really good game striking out 8 batters in 8 innings without allowing a walk.  The Phillies offense did just enough to win the game.  Ben Revere did his best in the 2nd inning to ground into a double play with the bases loaded, but he's really fast, and it looked like Uggla didn't have a clean transition at second base.

One thing I should say thus far is that I'm pretty happy with the order of Manuel's lineup.  I'm mostly talking about the first 6 batters.  There was a lot of discussion about who would bat lead off, Jimmy Rollins or Ben Revere.  Neither of the two are on-base machines, but Jimmy Rollins has considerably more power, which would be desirable from the 2-hole.  Additionally, Revere will likely attempt more steals than Rollins all things equal, and I'd rather have Revere trying to steal while Rollins is up than when Utley and Howard are up.  Revere is a lefty, and Rollins batting second breaks up the Phillies having 3 consecutive guaranteed lefties.  Utley and Howard still bat back-to-back, but is inevitably going to happen.  This is the only reason I like Michael Young batting ahead of Dom Brown, it breaks up 3 LHB in a row.

Andy and I have added a new member to the site, Gary Matthews (Senior, of course)!  He will be helping us post more regularly, and will be an addition by addition (not subtraction).  

Game 2: Phillies forced to play in monsoon, lose (0-2)

Halladay marched out to his much anticipated first start in a steady, cold rain that persisted throughout the evening. The pitcher's struggles continued last night as he lasted only 3.1 innings, surrendering 5 ER and walking 3, but amazingly striking out 9. Halladay labored through the first inning, throwing 40 pitches, and the Phillies were again thrown into an early deficit. Braves starter Paul Maholm scattered 6 hits throughout his 5.2 innings of work, and the Phillies only runs came in the top of the 7th from a Chase Utley double.

In the top of the 4th, the Phillies were threatening with 1 out and runners on first and second. After a Kratz strikeout, Manuel sent Halladay to the plate. At this time, he had 79 pitches and had struggled considerably on the mound, but the score was only 3-0. Halladay proceeded to strikeout, ending the threat. In the bottom of the 4th, Halladay gave up a home run to Evan Gattis, stretching the Braves lead to 4-0. But after striking out Maholm and surrendering a single, Manuel pulled Halladay from the game with 96 pitches. Raul Valdes came in for relief, immediately walking two consecutive batters before Freddie Freeman cleared the bases with a double.

Why let Halladay bat in the top of the 4th? If 96 pitches were around Halladay's limit for the game, then the best result of leaving him in the game would have been a scoreless 4th. This would likely have brought Halladay to around 96 pitches, and his night would have been over.  Instead of pinch hitting in the top of the 4th and trying to score, Manuel opted to go with a pitcher that clearly did not have his best stuff.  Manuel did not have the foresight that scoring at the moment would be more beneficial than squeezing another inning out of Halladay. Pitching lost this game, but the pitching staff needs to be managed more effectively.

Cliff Lee faces off against Kris Medlen tonight, as the Phillies try to avoid a broom to the face.

Game 1: Hamels, Phillies drop opener (0-1)

Cole Hamels began the season and his first career Opening Day start with a lackluster performance, and the Phillies could not dig themselves out of that early hole. Hamels never really settled in, struggling with his command throughout the evening. The resurrected Chase Utley carried the offense, going 3-5 with a home run, a triple, and 3 RBIs.

There was really only one issue with Charlie's management in this game. In the bottom half of the 6th, Manuel aptly decided to remove the struggling Chad Durbin, exercising a refreshingly short leash. However, Manuel did not wait for the would-be pinch hitter, Juan Francisco, to be announced before bringing in Jeremy Horst. Instead of wasting a Braves bench player, Manuel enabled Fredi Gonzalez to call Francisco back to the dugout in favor of Reed Johnson. Johnson ended up grounding into a double play, but the result of the mistake does not excuse it. If Manuel ignores such a basic aspect of managing such as this on a regular basis, the results will be more damaging for the Phillies. Manuel claimed that he saw the umpire gesture to the press box, as if to announce Francisco as the pinch hitter, before pulling Durbin, but he could just be trying to cover his tracks.

UPDATE: The scorer did indeed miss the announcement of Francisco, and the box score now reflects this. A nearly inconsequential mistake by Manuel has been nullified. 

My 2013 Season Outlook

As Opening Day 2013 approaches, I can’t help but not be excited.  The 2013 Phillies are almost certainly going to be as bad as the 2012 Phillies, and a large part of this has to do with things Charlie Manuel could do differently.  I’m not even talking about getting different players to replace the pathetic team that this city will be forced to watch this summer.  I’m talking about better utilizing the players that are currently under contract. 

A quick look at the Phillies current Depth Chart (yes, I know Spring Training hasn’t even begun yet and things can certainly still change) just leaves me shaking my head.  All I need to do is see the names listed, and I can come up with a million different ways that Charlie Manuel can, and most definitely will, drive me nuts this season. 

The outfield picture looks like this:

LF – Domonic Brown, Darin Ruf, Laynce Nix

CF – Ben Revere, John Mayberry Jr.

RF – Delmon Young, Domonic Brown, Laynce Nix

I must say that I am encouraged to see Domonic Brown’s name with the “first string” outfield.  I will be shocked if he gets his deserved chance this year. 

Everyone knew that Ben Revere would be the Phillies everyday CF, so there’s no surprise here.  Thus, it makes sense to see John Mayberry Jr. name 2^nd in that list.

What bothers me is that John Mayberry’s name is listed nowhere else on the page.  JMJ is 1 season removed from a .368 wOBA, and has a career wOBA against LHP of .371, and while he doesn’t have such great splits against RHP, at least he walks at a decent rate (8.8%).  Delmon Young has never put up a wOBA of .368 in a single season, and his strength against opposite handed pitchers isn’t as strong as Mayberry’s either.  Oh yea, and he literally almost NEVER walks.

When you take this comparison a step further and look at their fielding, neither are anything to really write home about.  However, over 131 career innings in RF (yes small sample size), Mayberry has never had a negative UZR/150, which has to stand for something.  Delmon Young hasn’t played RF since 2007, and over the last 5 years, when playing a position, has played LF exclusively.  Over that time frame, he has never had a positive UZR/150. 

While neither are ideal RF for the Phillies, I think Mayberry would provide more defensively, and wouldn’t drive me as crazy with his approach at the plate. 

I then look to the infield, and see Michael Young’s name and want to not look at the infield anymore...

But I move on... to first base.  Ryan Howard and his enormous contract combined with his enormous inability to hit left handed pitching.  Then I’m back to Manuel and his refusal to acknowledge that Howard cannot hit left handed pitching, especially left handed relief pitching.  Sure, maybe his down season last year can largely be attributed to the fact that he was injured.  He is aging though, and shouldn’t be expected to rebound to too great a height at this point in his career. Hopefully, I’m wrong about Howard.  Hopefully he was able to fully recover this offseason and will be a huge contributor to the Phillies going forward.  I’m willing to bet he won’t be knocking the cover off the ball like his former MVP self, and as such, I don’t think it’s too much of a stretch to wish Manuel would entertain the idea of platooning Howard occasionally.  It would be a way to get Darin Ruf or John Mayberry Jr. more PA against LHP.  Even if I’m willing to concede a Howard platoon, it would be a great idea to give Howard (and other aging positional players) days off.  Doing this against LHP is a great way to play to multiple players’ strengthes.  Regardless of a platoon at 1B, I think it’s imperative for Manuel to consider pinch hitting for Howard late in games against dominant LHP. 

Here’s my ideal situation for this season as far as platoons are concerned:

LF - I don’t think Dom Brown needs a platoon, as his splits are not that drastic.  However, if platooning him results in his playing every day vs. RHP, then there are worse possible scenarios that could exist.  Given a platoon in LF, I’d prefer a Mayberry/Young platoon with Dom Brown.       

CF - Revere will be starting every day.

RF – I never really want to see Laynce Nix start a baseball game, so if it were up to me, I’d give John Mayberry a chance to start in RF against LHP and RHP.  There isn’t a huge difference between Young and Mayberry at the plate, but in the field, I like my chances with Mayberry over Young. 

1B – Obviously Ryan Howard should start against RHP, but with the possibility of platooning him, it would be a chance to give Darin Ruf some PAs.  Any platoon with Howard and Mayberry/Ruf/Young should work.  I’d obviously prefer the better fielders to be in the OF than at first base because if Ryan Howard can play 1B, anyone can. 

When I look at the bullpen, I don’t really see a way for Manuel to mess up, but he undoubtedly will.  It’s what he does: poor in-game strategy.  There are plenty of capable names on the depth chart including: Papelbon, Bastardo, Adams (although I’m concerned about his injury), Aumont, Stutes, and Diekman.  I’d love to see Manuel use Papelbon more open-mindedly instead of trotting him out there in noncritical situations, which should not be confused with overusing him.  MLB teams have proven that you don’t need a flashy name in the bullpen to get the job done, and now it seems like there are plenty names (both well-known and young unknowns) that are capable of being good relievers for this team.

What I look forward to the least this season is the combination of all of Manuel’s flaws really costing this team games.  Whether he’s not optimizing the lineup with positional starters or the order, overusing starting pitching, mismanaging the bullpen, or giving aging regular players (Rollins, Utley, and Howard) time off, Manuel will find a way to handicap this team.  It was one thing when the Phillies offense was the behemoth force that it was and was capable of covering up his mistakes, but those days are over.  The Phillies cannot afford to have a manager cost them runs and games when simple solutions exist.  I’m sorry to say it, but those days will not come again until Charlie Manuel is gone.

Guest Post

There hasn't been a whole lot going on on this site this off season.  Sorry for the lack of posts.  Recently, I got an email from someone asking if they could write an article as a guest post on the blog.  I agreed, and here you have it.  If you have a topic you'd like to write about, we'd be willing to consider posting it on Charlie's Manuel.  Feel free to email Andy or ME with your potential post.

Is The Lack Of Sabermetrics Holding Back The Phillies?

Going into last season, most people assumed that the Phillies were going to be just fine in the National League East. With a solid pitching staff and a lineup stacked with all-stars, few could have imagined that both the Nationals and Braves passed them by. With those two teams getting even better for 2013, there are a lot of questions surrounding the Phillies.

While it is easy now to step back and look at some of the issues that surround Ruben Amaro Jr. and the Phillies’ front office, many point to their resistance to put much stock into sabermetrics as a major reason why they are falling behind. This is even more of an issue for a team that is aging quickly with not a lot of help coming up through the system in sight.

Between general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. and field manager Charlie Manuel, the Phillies have a very old school way of thinking. What this has led to is overpaying for aging superstars and handing out a few dud contracts. With the new financial restrictions on teams around baseball, that can’t be done nearly as frequently as in the past.

Take their case with Ryan Howard for example. The slugger won an MVP award in 2006, and ever since then, he has been paid quite a bit of money to avoid hitting the free agent market. However, Howard was just 11th in the league that season in wins above replacement (WAR), as his average, plate discipline and fielding all hold him back as being a true game-changing slugger. These days, he is signed through 2016 in the middle of a 5 year, $125 million deal. That is a lot of money to pay for a guy who has a total of a 0.8 WAR in his last three seasons.

Heading into 2013, the Phillies have eight players making over $10 million a season. They traded away Hunter Pence, a guy who would have made ninth and also would have been the youngest guy at age 30. Needless to say, this aging roster only has maybe one or two more years to get back in the playoffs. As any fantasy baseball player will tell you, the time has come where sabermetrics need to be at least considered to make smart free agent moves and decisions are possible extensions for the players on the roster. Decisions on Roy Halladay and Chase Utley will need to be made soon, and crunching the numbers could help with proper projections.

Phillies obtain Michael Young

Earlier today, I posted about the Ben Revere trade that the Phillies made earlier this week, and briefly touched on the possibility of the Phils trading for Michael Young.  Young, 36, has played for the Texas Rangers for 13 seasons.  In 2012, Young had a sub-par season on the way to accumulating a -2.4 rWAR.  I mentioned earlier how I wasn't thrilled about the Phillies pursuing Young, and I'm not satisfied now that they made the deal.

I don't think it will be hard for Young to "earn" his $6 million (the Rangers are paying $10 million of the $16 million he's due in 2013).  Each win is worth about 4-5 million dollars, so Young will need to be slightly over a 1 WAR player.  Should he play mostly 3B, his just filling in the position will give him decent "value", and should he help him be "worth" what the Phillies are paying him.  My concern isn't about the money the Phils are spending on him.  I'm more concerned about just how highly the Phillies valued him and what they gave up to get him.

I'm not even talking about Josh Lindblom, whom the Phillies received in the Shane Victorino trade.  Lindblom is nothing special to me, and I never really understood the hype.  I'm more upset that the Phillies traded Lisalverto Bonilla.  I don't even know who he is, and his being dealt bothers me.  While he's merely a AA reliever, which in itself suggests there's not a high ceiling for him, his minor league numbers are encouraging.  Yes, he's still got a ways to go before reaching the majors, but the guy has a cumulative 9.3 K/9 to go with a 2.7 BB/9 in the minors.  This past season in Reading, Bonilla struck out 12.5/9 IP (yes, in just 33 innings), but walked 4.6/9 IP over that same time span.

I'm not sure this trade is anything to be furious about, but it's just not encouraging to see the types of players that the Phillies value/consider disposable.  It seems to imply that they still just don't get the sabermetric side of things.  

I certainly hope the Phillies aren't done dealing yet, or it will be a painful season to be a Phillies fan.  

By the way, the Phillies' gap in starting rotation dominance is quickly closing as the Nationals have a nice trio of their own in Strasburg, Gonzalez, and Haren.  Combine this with offensive talent like Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth, Mike Morse, Bryce Harper, Denard Span, and bullpen arms like Clippard, Storen, and Stammen, and it's clear the Phillies are going to have their hands full for years to come.  

Phillies trade for CF of the future

The Phillies traded for a new center fielder this week.  Ben Revere is 24 years old and over the last three seasons has compiled just over 1000 PA with the Minnesota Twins.  As part of the deal, the Phillies sent Vance Worley and Trevor May to the Twins.

When I first heard about this trade, I was a little confused.  First, I couldn't believe that the Phillies didn't try and overpay for a marquee CF, and someone that everyone in Philadelphia has heard of.  Then, I looked up his stats quickly on baseball-reference, and was quickly infuriated with his career .642 OPS (79 OPS+).  I couldn't believe (and still can't understand), why it took both Vance Worley and Trevor May to land this atrocious hitter.

Once I finally started thinking rationally, I was curious how he grades out defensively.  While he spent most of last season in corner outfield spots, Revere plays defense VERY well despite the fact that he has a weak arm.  He also runs the bases very well.  Your CF doesn't need to be a huge offensive asset, but someone does... more on that later.

So, the Phillies acquired a defensive/speed specialist who can't hit anything more than singles and doesn't walk.  The price they paid is Vance Worley, who has a career FIP/xFIP/SIERA under 4.00 with a K-rate around 20% and a BB-rate around 8%.  He's done fairly well for the Phillies since he's been here.  Also included in the deal was the Phillies top prospect (#69 according to Baseball America), Trevor May.  May, 23, has struck out batters at an alarming rate over his Minor League career.  Last year he only struck out 9 batters/9 IP, but over the 4 seasons prior, had K/9 rates around 12/9 IP.  That's insane.  However, he does walk players at a near JC Romero rate.

Everyone wants to talk about Ben Revere being a cheap, cost-controlled player for the next several years.  This is true, and I think that's great because it frees up money for other areas, but so are Worley and May.  I don't hate getting Ben Revere because one can only hope his offense will get better (it'll be tough for him to do worse), but I'm still baffled that the Phillies were willing to part with two young, cheap pitchers.  Maybe Worley is still injured.

That being said, I conditionally don't hate the trade.  The only way I find this trade acceptable as an off season move is if the Phillies add a good/great bat to compliment Revere.  The Phillies need a new 3B, or the hole could be filled in a corner OF spot if the Phillies so choose. I just hope the choice is NOT Michael Young.  Seemingly everyone in Philadelphia wants Michael Young, and I just don't see how the move makes sense.  He's 36 years old, undoubtedly on the decline of his career, and he's coming off an atrocious 2012.  Add to that the fact that he'll probably be acquired to fill the 3B hole, and it's just a nightmare.  While most of his career he was a pretty able hitter, he has never been great defensively, but for some reason was used to play ever INF position for extended periods of time (including SS!).  Over the last 10 seasons, his dWAR (bbref) has never been higher than +0.4 with the bulk of his seasons hovering around -2.0.  Last year he compiled a WAR of -2.4.

I get the feeling that the Phillies are going to trade for Young. While I don't want him on this team, I certainly hope that RAJ doesn't over pay with players in return and is able to have the Rangers cover most of his contract should the deal go through.

This is why Chris Wheeler sucks

This is Prince Fielder's terrible slide from last night that would have given his team a 1-0 lead. Had he scored this run, they probably would have scored again in the inning. The final score was 2-0 Giants, so this slide very well may have cost the Tigers the game and their entire season.

Chris Wheeler loves to drone on and on about the DANGERS of sliding head first, especially when a young black player mildly injures himself by diving into a base. He especially hates diving head first into home because of the catcher's equipment. However, Wheeler never explains to the audience the benefits of sliding head first. Usually, sliding head first is a quicker way to get to a base than sliding feet first, due to the fact that  head-first slides propel yourself forward rather than downward. Since a proper head-first slide involves a slight airborne dive, there is consequently less friction than feet-first.

Furthermore, on a head-first slide, your arms are almost always entirely outstretched in front of you, maximizing your chances of getting to the base as quickly as possible. Just look at Fielder's slide. His waist is almost perfectly centered at the top of the batter's box, yet the only part of his body that is outside the batter's box, towards home plate, is his left foot, which is still at least 6 inches from the plate. The reason that Fielder and Leyland were convinced that he was safe was because he should have been safe. Prince Fielder, for as much criticism as he gets for his baserunning, actually beat the throw on this play. It was a god-awful slide that completely wiped out his effort. Had he slid head-first and his waist was in a similar area relative to home plate, his hands would have been outstretched far across the plate, possibly even reaching the umpire.

We haven't yet discussed another reason for sliding head first, which is that your hands/fingers are easier to control than your feet, which increases your chances of dodging the tag. Also, your arms are skinnier than your legs, decreasing the surface area for the defender to tag (I mean, Prince Fielder's legs are about the size of Paul Lo Duca circa 2006).

There is no doubt Fielder would have been safe had he chosen to slide head first. However, the first time someone shakes his hand next season after slightly jamming his fingers on a head first slide and Wheeler immediately admonishes the decision to slide head first, there will be about a .01% chance Wheeler will mention this slide. Yes, sliding head first is slightly more dangerous (see Utley's slide at Cincinnati 2010), but I am not convinced it is significantly more dangerous than sliding feet first (Stephen Drew's injury 2011 was extremely gruesome). In fact, if I were the Phillies GM, I would demand that Utley not slide head first until the playoffs (or until regular season games turn into de facto playoff games). With a player like Utley, the risk of injury is probably not worth the slight effect that a head-first slide has on run expectancy in a game that has an even slighter effect on World Series-expectancy.

Perhaps if Wheeler mentioned -- even once -- that deciding to slide head-first instead of feet-first ALWAYS  increases a team's chances of winning, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Unfortunately for us, though, we live in a world where a mediocre slide from a Detroit player reminds us of just how condescending our TV announcing team (sans Sarge) truly operates.

Game 162: Phils fire 3 coaches, none named Manuel (81-81)

Of course the Phillies begin the offseason today by firing coaches Pete Mackanin, Greg Gross, and Sam Perlozzo, as if they were more important to this team's failure than Charlie Manuel (or even Juan Samuel). This means that Ryne Sandberg will likely become the bench coach for 2013 and, since it is the last year of Manuel's contract, the manager for 2014. Hopefully, Sandberg is okay with that plan, because I sure as hell wouldn't be happy to have to wait around another full year while Manuel continues to kill the Phillies' playoff-chances.